FEATURE: India looks to tap Brazil in push toward crude diversification, equity oil

India has intensified efforts to expand crude oil purchases from Brazil amid escalating Middle East tensions, but analysts and sources said plentiful availability of discounted Russian crude and logistical hurdles could pose challenges in boosting purchases from the South American supplier.

Indian petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri recently visited Brazil to discuss how India could expand crude oil purchases from Brazil, as well as look for opportunities to collaborate on offshore deep and ultra-deepwater exploration and production projects.

Brazilian exports of crude to India have been subdued in recent months. So far in 2024, India has imported crude from Brazil during just five months, with imports this year peaking at 41,600 b/d in April, data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea showed. In December 2023, Indian imports of Brazilian crude were as high as 143,000 b/d.

But analysts are of the view that since India has stepped up diplomatic efforts to diversify its sources, the country's refiners would be open to exploring higher spot volumes as well as term contracts for Brazilian crude.

"Diversifying crude sources has always been high on the priority list of the Indian government and refiners. A joint effort between the government, refiners and Brazilian counterparts can help in increasing long-term supplies for Indian refineries, while at the same time, potentially opening avenues for upstream investments to secure supplies," said Tushar Tarun Bansal, senior director at consulting firm Alvarez and Marsal.

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, 2000-2015 could be classified as a period of aggressive internationalization by upstream companies globally.

Indian companies were also part of this trend and expanded in multiple jurisdictions globally. The period coincided with growing oil prices and a general belief that upstream production growth demanded companies to go out and buy stakes overseas rather than being solely homebound.

"Brazil deepwater was one of the most attractive emerging areas and saw huge participation in bidding by global oil majors, including Indian companies. However, with a few exceptions, Brazil then did not end up being a focus area for Indian companies. This can be attributed to attention being paid elsewhere back then -- Russia and Venezuela," said Rajeev Lala, director for upstream companies and transactions at Commodity Insights.

However, the tide is turning, and Indian upstream companies are now more open to overseas investments and venturing to newer locations, he and other sources said.

Lala added that Indian companies continue to have Brazil exposure with ONGC's Campos Basin BC-10 and BPCL's stake in five offshore blocks.

While entitlement production for Indian companies from Brazil is miniscule – it was about 8,000 b/d of oil equivalent in 2023 -- new projects coming online starting in 2024 would boost production to about 40,000 boe/d by 2028. These include SEAP 1 and Wahoo for BPCL and SEAP 2 for Oil and Natural Gas Corp.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's cabinet in July 2022 approved a proposal to invest $1.6 billion to develop an oil block in Brazil in an attempt to procure equity oil overseas.

"It's a good strategy to aim to boost both upstream and downstream ties with Brazil. Indian refiners and upstream companies will stand to gain from this broader approach focusing on both upstream and downstream, rather than focusing on only crude purchases," said one Indian oil trading source.

Hurdles remain

While India has increased efforts to expand crude oil purchases from Brazil, some hurdles remain.

"Intense competition from nearby Middle Eastern sour grades and discounted Russian crude presents significant challenges for Brazilian crude in the Indian market," said Mark Esposito, senior principal research analyst at Commodity Insights.

"Notably, Russian sour Urals dominate in the Indian market, comprising 42% of India's crude imports this year, and constraining opportunities for alternatives. Moreover, logistical hurdles further diminish the appeal of Brazilian crude," he added.

It currently costs about $4-$6/mt and takes about a week to ship crude oil from some destinations in the Middle East, while it costs $15-$20/mt and takes about a month to bring in crude oil from Brazil, market sources and analysts said.

Iraq was the second-largest supplier, with 940,000 b/d, while Saudi Arabia supplied 623,000 b/d over the same period, making it the third-largest supplier. Imports from the US stood at 215,000 b/d over January-September, making it the fifth-largest supplier after the UAE, which supplied 423,000 b/d.

In addition, traders and analysts said India could face more competition from China for Brazilian crude as China faces difficulty in sourcing Iranian crude and starts looking for alternatives.

"The key question is how much additional Brazilian volumes are available for India to buy. Brazilian crude has remained a traditional favorite for some of the Chinese buyers and one has to see those deals from many different angles," said a senior Indian refining source.