FEATURE: Wagner Group's lucrative operations in spotlight at Russia-Africa summit

When Russian and African officials gather in St Petersburg on July 27-28 for their first summit in four years, the Wagner Group's involvement in African commodities production, supply and sale will be near the top of a packed agenda.

The event comes weeks after the Wagner Group mutiny June 24, which continues to raise concerns over political stability in Russia and neighboring countries, but is not expected to affect its operations in Africa.

"Predictions of the end of the Wagner Group's operations in Africa and the Middle East in the aftermath of its ill-fated rebellion in Russia are premature," Vanda Felbab-Brown, director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said in a comment published July 18. "More likely, Wagner's Middle East and Africa operations will persist: They still serve multiple interests of the Russian state and can be separated from Wagner's Ukraine and Russia operations."

Some 5,000 Wagner Group operatives are thought to be deployed in Africa, most of them in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali and Sudan. Protecting leaders and battling rebels have earned them lucrative contracts, including for oil in Libya; timber, gold and diamonds in the Central African Republic; and gold in Sudan and Mali, sold via a network spanning Africa and the Middle East. According to Forbes, the group has earned almost $5 billion in Africa.

The summit comes as Russia bids to retain and increase its influence in Africa, the world's fastest-growing continent, against competition from China, the US, and former colonial powers Britain and France. Moscow's schmoozing combines diplomacy, investment, disinformation campaigns and Wagner Group mercenaries, with the latter's operations of great value to Putin's heavily sanctioned government.

"Using smuggling networks to bring [African resources] to loosely regulated markets in places like the UAE and Turkey allows Russia to skirt some of those sanctions and to really soften [their] impact," Catrina Doxsee, associate director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said July 20.

In recent weeks, Russian officials have travelled to Africa – including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Mali and the Central African Republic – to reassure regimes that Wagner will meet its existing obligations, potentially under new command.

"It now goes beyond payment [for services]," Enrica Picco, Central Africa expert at the International Crisis Group think tank, told S&P Global of Wagner's CAR business. "They have set up a network of illicit traffic and don't want to lose it."

Organizers expect the leaders of Egypt, Mozambique, Burundi, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Eritrea, CAR, Libya, Cameroon, Senegal, South Africa, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, and Congo to attend the meeting in St Petersburg, with turnout significantly lower than the last summit in 2019.

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Shifting relationships

Mozambique – energy rich but poor and with a history of anti-colonial struggle – epitomizes Russia's multipronged Africa strategy and the role the Wagner Group plays in it.

When the government there found itself unable to overcome an insurgency in gas-rich Cabo Delgado province, home to TotalEnergies and Exxon, it offered Wagner Group gas field rights to come to its aid.

Not long after, the same government signed an exploration agreement with Russian oil company Rosneft and this year welcomed Sergei Lavrov on one of the Russian foreign ministers many Africa trips. Last year, it was among 22 African governments that refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the UN General Assembly.

Rising Russian involvement in Africa underscores shifting relationships on the continent, with many African countries opting to remain neutral on the Ukraine war. Russia has longstanding relationships on the continent, having backed Cold War era liberation groups. Those seeking investment, including in their energy sectors, are wary of upsetting Russia or its ally China.

Anti-Western sentiment has been driven by a steady diet of Russian propaganda in recent years.

"Many [Nigerian] folks are pro-Russia already," said Uwadiae Osadiaye, an analyst at Lagos-based FBNQuest, due to "anti-neocolonial sentiment." Bola Tinubu, the new president, "will likely play the neutral game," he added.

Given Nigeria's fuel shortages, currency woes and lack of refining capacity, importing discounted Russian products makes sense, Osadiaye said.

Africa has significantly increased imports of Russian oil products since sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine cut off most European markets to Russian producers.

Big role

"Then the OPEC+ [members] ... are reliant on the proceeds of oil and natural gas from their countries, and Russia has a big role to play," said NJ Ayuk, chairman of the African Energy Chamber, a lobbying group. Nigeria, Angola, Gabon and others sit alongside Russia and Saudi Arabia at oil's top table.

Russian energy companies including Lukoil, Rosneft and Gazprom also hold investments in Africa. Data from S&P Global shows Russian companies have purchased stakes in 39 oil and gas projects, mostly in north and west Africa, with total remaining recoverable reserves of 1.77 billion boe.

Ayuk said African oil producers might be disappointed at the slow pace of investment by Russian companies in their energy industries.

"Africans want to get married, Russians just want to date, so we need to watch the dating game," Ayuk said.

Progress in the conflict in Ukraine could also impact Russia's ability to exert influence on the continent, after an African peace delegation, led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, visited Russia and Ukraine in an unsuccessful bid to start peace talks.

But experts say the most successful element of Russia's Africa strategy, the Wagner Group's operations, are likely to endure.