Russia's seaborne crude exports rise in June despite OPEC+ pledges

Russian seaborne crude exports rose 5% in June from a six-month low in May, according to tanker tracking data, despite pledges by Moscow to adhere more strictly to its OPEC+ output target from this month.

At the same time, oil product exports fell 9% on the month despite Russian refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes having largely been restored.

Work affecting Primorsk on the Baltic Sea and Kozmino on the Pacific coast cut shipments through Russia's two busiest oil terminals in the previous week, with no departures from either for four days during that period. But flows from both recovered fully in

Crude shipments from Russian ports averaged 3.71 million b/d in June, up 188,000 b/d from 3.52 million b/d in May led by a rise in cargoes of Urals crude from its Baltic and Black Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

Russia's June crude exports, which are above the average levels of 3.5 million b/d over the last year, come as Russian refiners repaired nearly all damaged capacity caused by Ukrainian drones since the start of the year. The rise in crude shipments also comes despite Moscow's pledges to OPEC+ to transition Russia's voluntary crude supply cut to a crude production cut during the third quarter. This includes May exports of 71,000 b/d below its May-June 2023 average, down from 121,000 b/d in April.

The rise from May also came despite a brief slump in export shipments from Russia's two busiest oil terminals --Primorsk on the Baltic Sea and Kozmino on Russia's Pacific coast-- in the third week of June, the data shows.

Click here to visualise oil flows with our interactive tracker

The biggest rise in crude exports during June headed to Russia's top oil buyer India, according to the data, with an additional 130,000 b/d of crude flowing to Indian ports during the month. Meanwhile, Russia's seaborne exports to China slipped by 130,000 b/d to a 10-month low of 980,000 b/d, according to the data, as Chinese refiners continued to undergo seasonal maintenance.

On June 24, the EU added Russia's largest shipping company Sovcomflot, and 17 oil tankers to its latest sanctions against Moscow, mirroring a move by the US earlier this year to tighten curbs on one of the key transporters of Moscow's oil. According to Commodities at Sea, Sovcomflot-owned tankers transported 16% (112.8 million barrels) of Russian-origin crude bound for international markets since the start of the year. The 17 tankers shipped another 22.37 million barrels of Russian-origin crude and products since the start of the year.

But efforts to sideline a growing fleet of "shadow tankers" able to sidestep the West's so-called "price cap" on Russia's oil exports in recent months has done little to dent the value of Russian key exports.

Compared with Dated Brent, the discount for Urals crude loaded at Primorsk shrank to $13.90/b at the end of June, the narrowest discount since Nov. 20, 2023, according to assessments by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Product flows

Russian oil product exports fell in June, according to the data, despite the restoration of damaged refining capacity and a rebound in gasoline shipments after Moscow suspended a temporary ban on exports.

Seaborne loadings of diesel, fuel oil, naphtha and other refined products averaged 2.18 million b/d, the data showed, down 9% on the month and some 470,000 b/d below January levels, when Ukraine began a barrage of long-range drone strikes on Russian refining capacity.

By the end of June, Russia had almost fully restored its damaged refining capacity, with the focus of Ukrainian drone strikes shifting from refineries to oil depots close to the front line. In March, refineries with a combined capacity of more than 1.4 million b/d were impacted by attacks, causing refined product exports to drop by 20% year on year in April.

Russia's biggest fuel exports -- diesel and gasoil -- averaged 783,000 b/d in June, down from 798,000 b/d in May and well down from pre-drone attack levels of over 900,000 b/d before this year's strikes began.

The overall drop in oil product exports in June was led by naphtha and VGO, which were down by 110,000 b/d and 64,000 b/d respectively.

Gasoline exports rose to 150,000 b/d from 99,000 b/d in May after Moscow suspended a ban on gasoline exports introduced to ease domestic pump prices.

Russia's gasoline exports are likely to remain at current levels or higher in July after the government on June 26 allowed gasoline exports for another month.