Crude oil futures end week lower as market eyes potential for increased supply amid OPEC+ tiff

Crude oil futures settled lower on the week as the market eyed a potential for rising global supply amid signs of internal OPEC+ tensions.

Prompt-dated June WTI settled at $63.02/b April 25, a gain of 23 cents on the day but down $1.66/b from the April 17 close. Front-month ICE Brent ended the April 25 session up 32 cents at $66.87/b but still down $1.09/b from its week-ago level.

Selling pressure emerged midweek after Kazakh Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov on April 23 roiled crude markets when he said Kazakhstan would pursue its own "national interests" when determining production levels, raising doubts about the country's commitment to fulfilling output cuts as part of the OPEC+ producer group.

A subsequent ministerial statement released later April 23 took a more conciliatory tone on the Saudi- and Russian-led producer bloc, but analysts said the comments revealed worrying fissures in the OPEC+ façade.

"[The developments] revealed that the OPEC+ alliance is in crisis and even on the verge of imploding ... A power struggle is underway, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan," Arne Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said in an April 24 note.

Kazakhstan has routinely exceeded its OPEC+ production quota and missed its March output target by 332,000 b/d, according to the latest Platts survey.

"Such defiance envisages looser oil balance but more importantly, it implies that Kazakhstan de facto ceases to exist as a member of OPEC+ although it remains in the alliance, for now." Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates said April 24.

Concerns of rising supply were reflected in a weakening of crude oil forward curves. The sixth-month ICE Brent contract ended the week at a $2.38/b discount to front-month, down 30 cents from April 17, while the same spread for NYMEX WTI ended the April 25 session at $2.24/b, in 62 cents from last week.

"Bottom line, the market trades like more oil is coming with the curves getting very weak," said TP ICAP Energy Analyst Scott Shelton.

On April 3, OPEC and its allies surprised markets when it unexpectedly accelerated its plan to increase oil output and raised production targets by 411,000 b/d for May. The group is expected to meet on May 5 to discuss its June production targets and is widely expected to announce further production hikes.

These new barrels come at a time when global markets are already eyeing structural oversupply, and global demand growth outlooks have come under pressure amid widespread uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and trade policy.

"Global crude stocks are anticipated to build modestly over the next two months, with a sharper rise seen later this year," S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts Zhuwei Wang said in an April 23 note. "Fundamentals are likely to push prices lower if stock builds occur as anticipated, with higher stocks also impacting market structure. Both trends are expected to become evident by September."

In its monthly oil market report April 14, OPEC said it expected global crude demand to rise by 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.28 million b/d in 2026, both revised down by 150,000 b/d from its March estimates.