US warns Venezuela not to attack Guyana, ExxonMobil oil interests

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Venezuela that strong action would be taken if Guyana is invaded or an attack is launched on ExxonMobil's oil assets in the Stabroek Block.

At a March 27 news conference with Guyana President Irfaan Ali in Georgetown, Rubio made it clear the US would not tolerate Venezuelan incursions into Guyanese waters or threats towards ExxonMobil's operations in the country.

On March 1, a Venezuelan offshore patrol vessel entered Guyana's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and told several ExxonMobil-associated vessels that they were illegally in Venezuelan waters. Rubio told reporters March 27 that the US would not tolerate this again, and reminded Venezuela that the US Navy can operate anywhere in the world.

"It would be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime if they were to attack Guyana or attack ExxonMobil or anything like it," Rubio said.

Rubio was visiting Guyana as part of a South American diplomatic trip, which included a visit to neighboring Suriname, where TotalEnergies is eyeing first oil in 2027 from a 750 million-barrel crude offshore deposit.

Rubio's public statements before his meeting with Ali promised a policy of US "mutually beneficial" partnership with Guyana, whose new proven oil reserves are expected to exceed 1 million b/d of production in the coming years.

"We want your country to be safe and secure and prosperous for all of your citizens," Rubio said, according to a transcript provided by the US State Department. "To serve as an example, and also as a place that we can transact and we can do business and commercial opportunities together in a way that respects your sovereignty and is critical to your plan and your vision for the people of this country."

Venezuela policy

The desire for a US-Guyanese partnership stood in contrast to the Trump administration's policy on neighboring Venezuela.

On Feb. 26, the US canceled Chevron's license to operate its production facilities in Venezuela, reapplying sanctions temporarily lifted in 2022 under former US President Joe Biden, after Maduro promised open elections in 2024.

Maduro's regime later prevented the top opposition candidate, Maria Corina Machado, from running. Machado's replacement, Edmundo Gonzalez, was widely considered to have won 70% of the vote in the general election, according to voting booth evidence presented by the opposition, but Maduro declared himself the victor without presenting vote totals, remaining in power. Gonzalez later went into exile in Spain. International observers and the US have criticized the regime's crackdown on political dissent since the July 28, 2024 election.

On March 19, Trump threatened to escalate sanctions further on the country if Maduro did not accept repatriation flights of Venezuelan deportees from the US. On March 25, the administration unveiled a plan to levy a 25% tariff on all goods imported to the US from any country that purchases Venezuelan crude.

Venezuelan average crude production by state-owned oil company PDVSA and its foreign partners rose to 965,000 b/d in 2024, with Chevron's output averaging 203,000 b/d, according to estimated data included in a PDVSA production report reviewed by Platts.

In February, average production by PDVSA and its foreign partners rose to 1.01 million b/d, 50,000 b/d over January, according to data reviewed by Platts.

Under maximum pressure sanctions during Trump's first term, Venezuela's crude production sank to 280,000 b/d in June 2020, according to Platts OPEC+ Survey data.

Chevron must unwind its operations in the country by May 27, according to the latest guidance from the US Department of the Treasury.