Crude Oil, Maritime & Shipping, Refined Products, Electric Power, Natural Gas

March 18, 2025

Russia pledges to halt Ukraine infrastructure attacks after Trump-Putin cooperation pledge

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HIGHLIGHTS

Pledge to boost economic, energy ties in policy about-turn

Sides to work on Black Sea shipping security agreement

Ukrainian stance on US-Russia pledges unclear

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a 30-day halt to attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure as he and US President Donald Trump discussed plans to normalize relations and boost economic and energy ties, the Kremlin said March 18.

The two-and-a-half-hour telephone discussion underlined the Trump administration's desire for a new chapter in US-Russian relations, with detailed talks on ending the war in Ukraine set to take place in the Middle East. The Kremlin's initial statement made no specific mention of the sanctions regime spearheaded by the previous US administration, which upended trade flows in natural gas, shipping and oil, but both sides underscored a desire to normalize ties.

"The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace," the White House said in a statement.

The Kremlin said the two sides "expressed their interest in the normalization of bilateral relations in light of the special responsibilities of Russia and the US for ensuring security and stability in the world. A wide range of topics were discussed on which our countries could establish cooperation. Several ideas were discussed for developing prospects for mutual cooperation in economics and energy."

Other topics discussed included the situation in the Middle East, including attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, as well as nuclear proliferation and global security, the Kremlin added.

Ukraine infrastructure

In the energy and resource sphere, the talks raised hopes of an immediate easing of attacks on infrastructure, as Russia and Ukraine have engaged in more than three years of drone and missile strikes, which have crippled Ukrainian energy supply and, on the Russian side caused major problems in the refining sector. Ukraine's willingness or otherwise to cease attacks on Russian refineries and supply routes was unclear.

Trump in the course of the phone call "put forward a proposal on the two sides mutually refraining from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave a corresponding order to the Russian military," the Kremlin said.

Russia has increasingly turned to targeting Ukrainian gas production sites in 2025, having repeatedly attacked gas storage sites and other gas infrastructure since the war began in February 2022.

The most recent attack on March 7 saw gas production facilities of Ukraine's state-owned Naftogaz group damaged, while privately owned D.TEK said its upstream facilities had been targeted, forcing it to shut in operations.

Russian attacks in January and February against Ukrainian gas production facilities had already caused "significant" damage, Naftogaz said mid-February.

As a result of such attacks, Ukraine has been forced to import more European gas in recent weeks. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the benchmark Dutch TTF month-ahead gas price at Eur41.43/MWh on March 17.

Ukraine's total gas production rose in 2024 to 19.1 Bcm, according to gas industry association AGPU. The 19.1 Bcm production volume last year was higher than the 2023 output of 18.7 Bcm, which itself was up from 18.5 Bcm in 2022.

On the shipping side, the maritime war between Ukraine and Russia has impinged on shipments in the Black Sea of everything from grains to crude oil, and largely prevented exports of Azeri-origin crude on Georgia's coast, for example.

Platts last assessed the additional war risk premium for crude supply in the Black Sea at 85 cents/b on March 18, flat on the day, but up 15 cents/b since mid-January.