Warfare, attacks on energy infrastructure driving Ukraine conflict emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine rose by 30% during the third year of the war, exacerbated by rising forest fires and heavy warfare, according to a new study released Feb. 24.

Attacks on energy infrastructure and active fighting have contributed to emissions of almost 229.7 million mt of CO2 equivalent linked to the Russian invasion, according to preliminary assessments by the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War.

The emissions are equivalent to the total annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia combined, or the annual emissions produced by 120 million fossil fuel vehicles.

2025 could mark significant changes in the volume of emissions linked to the conflict, with US President Donald Trump pushing for an end to the war. US and Russian officials have already held talks, and the two presidents are expected to meet in the near future.

"With peace negotiations in the air, climate costs shouldn't be forgotten," the report's lead author Lennard de Klerk said. "Russia started this war and should shoulder the cost of its climate emissions."

Conflict-related emissions are generated by arms production, explosions and fires, military and civilian transportation and the cost of post-war reconstruction.

The report found that warfare rose to become the single biggest emissions category in the third year of the war and now totals 82.1 million mtCO2e.

"Fossil fuel used by tanks and fighter jets, large guzzlers of diesel and kerosine, make up the brunt of warfare emissions, the use of ammunition for artillery was a large contributor in the third year of the war as well," the report said.

It added that despite the increasing prominence of drones in the conflict, this has not replaced the use of carbon-intensive artillery shells.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, did not receive a response to requests for comment on conflict-related emissions from Russia's natural resources ministry and presidential advisor on climate change.

Energy impact

Attacks on energy infrastructure resulted in emissions of 2.8 million mtCO2e in the past 12 months, bringing the total to 19 million mtCO2e since 2022, the report said.

Over the last year, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian refining and oil storage. Russia has continued to focus on taking out Ukrainian power and gas infrastructure.

There have been at least 166 attacks on oil, power and gas infrastructure since the conflict began, according to Platts reporting.

"These continued attacks not only caused the release of CO2, but also the extremely potent greenhouse gas SF6, which is 24,000 times stronger as a greenhouse gas than CO2," the report said.

The GHG estimates additional emissions from civilian aviation at 14.4 million mtCO2e after three years of war. The conflict has led to frequent disruptions to air travel, including airport closures and rerouting flights due to active fighting and closure of certain airspace.

Forest fires were a defining feature of conflict emissions in 2024. Conflict and climate heating combined to scorch 92,100 hectares in 2024 -- double the area of the previous two years. Emissions from all landscape fires, including forests, hit 48.7 million mtCO2e since the conflict began.

International impact

Conflict-related emissions are not covered by the Paris Agreement, with countries able to report these emissions on a voluntary basis. Attribution of conflict emissions is complicated in cases where territorial boundaries are disputed. In the case of invasions, there is a debate over which country should report emissions linked to fighting on the ground.

As many countries grow more concerned about energy security and plan increases in military spending, military emissions levels are likely to increase.

In-depth assessments of emissions linked to the conflict in Ukraine could provide a framework for assessing the impact of other conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas war and wars in Sudan and Myanmar.

The authors of the report applied a 'social cost of carbon' of $185/mtCO2e to put Russia's liability after three years of war at over $42 billion.

The study was carried out by the non-profit Initiative on GHG Accounting of War. It is endorsed by the Ukrainian government and co-authored by IPCC member Svitlana Krakovska.