Russia's Transneft sees 2022 oil pipeline shipments to Europe at highest since 2018

Russian pipeline operator Transneft provisionally plans to ship 45.5 million mt, or around 913,740 b/d, of oil via the Druzhba pipeline to Europe in 2022 -- the highest level since 2018, according to a company statement sent to S&P Global Platts Jan. 25.

This would represent a 27% increase on shipments of 720,951 b/d in 2021.

The planned increase comes at a time when concerns are rising over the impact of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine on exports of Russian crude to European refiners. This has already pressured prices for Moscow's key medium sour crude export grade Urals, which has gained about $1/b against Brent from early to mid-Jan.

Transneft's plans to increase shipments also come at a time when European consumers are seeking to diversify crude supplies. Earlier in January Poland's PKN agreed to sell a 30% stake in Lotos' 210,000 b/d Gdansk-based refinery to Saudi Aramco, and signed a long-term crude oil supply agreement with the company for 200,000-337,000 b/d.

In recent years volumes shipped via Druzhba have been affected by a major contamination on the line in 2019, as well as the coronavirus pandemic's impact on demand and OPEC+ oil production quotas.

Earlier this year Transneft said that volumes shipped via its network in 2022 will mainly depend on the dynamics of global oil market recovery, and Russian oil production under the OPEC+ agreement.

Transneft's 2022 plans include increases of 25% in deliveries to Germany, 55% to Poland, 12% to Czechia, 13% to Slovakia, and 3% to Hungary.

Transneft pipeline deliveries to Europe (mil b/d)

*provisional plan

Source: Transneft