Russian crude exports surge to seven-week high despite sanctions clampdown

Russian seaborne crude exports rose to a seven-week high in the week to Jan. 19, according to tanker tracking data, despite a recent clampdown on Russia's shadow tanker fleet which triggered widespread concerns of lower oil flows from the world's second biggest exporter.

Crude shipments from Russian ports averaged 3.8 million b/d in the week to Jan.19, up 730,000 b/d, or 24%, from the second week of 2025 when export flows averaged 3.07 million b/d, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab) data. Over the same period, Russian fuel and oil product exports slipped to 2.77 million b/d, down from a recent high of 2.9 million b/d a week earlier, the data shows.

More than 80% of Russia's seaborne crude exports are sold to refiners in India and China, with the countries importing about half and a third of Russia's seaborne flows respectively. Most of the oil is shipped on so-called shadow fleet tankers which can operate outside Western sanctions.

The US Treasury announced a major expansion of its blacklisted 'shadow fleet' tankers shipping Russian oil on Jan. 10 in a move which came days after China's Shandong Port Group prohibited US-sanctioned tankers from accessing its ports in the eastern Chinese province.

Data for the week to Jan. 19 shows Russian crude exports to Egypt, a major Mediterranean storage and blending hub, averaged 418,000 b/d, the highest weekly levels since the start of the Ukraine war. Flows to Turkey, Russia third biggest crude buyer, also rose sharply to 520,000 b/d in the week and another 1.35 million b/d of Russian crude has an unknown destination, the data shows. Most Russian crude flows with an unknown destinations after loading often end up in India and China.

Crude discounts

Middle East crude premiums jumped sharply after the US' Jan. 10 announcement, as Chinese and Indian refiners were expected to temporarily return to Middle Eastern crude supplies to avoid Russian flows. The shadow fleet clampdown also saw Aframax freight rates for shipping Russia's ESPO blend crude from Kozmino to North China skyrocket from $1.625 million at the end of the week ended Jan. 10 to $6.25 million on Jan. 16. At the same time, VLCC rates jumped with the rate from the Arab Gulf to Japan surging from $11.37/mt on Jan. 10 to $17.11/mt on Jan. 15, the highest level since May 2024, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

With the new sanctions cutting Russia's access to its shadow fleet, Russian crude values were expected to weaken as more exports are forced to use Western shipping allowed within the limits of the G7's $60/b oil "price cap" established in December 2022.

Russia's ESPO crude exports from Kozmino were assessed at a discount of $11.5/b to Platts Dubai on Jan. 14, Commodity Insights data showed, after widening sharply from a $1.7/b discount on Jan. 10 to the widest since February 2023. Discounts for Russian main export grade Urals have yet to react, however.

Platts assessed the discount of Urals on a FOB basis from Primorsk to Dated Brent at $11.05/b on Jan. 17, the lowest levels seen since the invasion of Ukraine and up from a post-invasion high of $40/b in April 2022.