OPEC+ trims crude output in Dec as new sanctions push prices above $80/b

OPEC+ crude production fell by 60,000 b/d month on month in December, with countries subject to quotas edging closer toward full compliance, according to the latest Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

OPEC output was flat at 26.71 million b/d in December, while Russia-led allies cut production to 13.81 million b/d, largely driven by Kazakhstan, where maintenance at the major Tengiz field dragged on.

OPEC+ crude producers with quotas pumped 23,000 b/d above target in December, down from overproduction of 91,000 b/d in November, the survey showed.

The nine OPEC members subject to quotas overproduced by 283,000 b/d, driven by Iraq, the UAE and Gabon, but were aided by their Russia-led allies, who underproduced by 260,000 b/d.

Serial overproducers Iraq and Kazakhstan both cut production in December -- by 30,000 b/d and 50,000 b/d, respectively. The two countries faced intense scrutiny in 2024 as OPEC+ struggled to enforce compliance to prop up oil prices.

These declines were undercut by increased output in Libya, which continued to rebound from a devastating oilfield shutdown over a political dispute, as well as in Venezuela.

Since the beginning of 2025 producers have had some relief, as oil prices have seen steady growth. Platts assessed Dated Brent at $82.975/b on Jan. 13, up from around $72/b in mid-December. Prices have risen on a raft of new Western sanctions against Iran and Russia, which could limit flows of Russian crude to thirsty Asian economies, as well as cold weather and optimism around Chinese demand.

The improved outlook could pave the way for OPEC+ to go ahead and ease voluntary cuts in the second quarter, in line with current policy.

OPEC+ agreed Dec. 5 to delay plans to ease voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million b/d until April. This was the third time it delayed bringing barrels back to market. It also agreed to extend the compensation period for overproducers until the end of June 2026 and rolled over a further 3.6 million b/d of overlapping groupwide cuts until the end of 2026.

The group could choose to amend these plans at any time, subject to market conditions. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which oversees the agreement, is due to meet in early February, followed by a full OPEC+ ministerial meeting scheduled for May 28.

OPEC+ officials are also closely watching the return of Donald Trump to the White House on Jan. 20, with potential implications for sanctions, US production and attitudes toward the alliance in Washington.

The Platts survey measures wellhead production and is compiled using information from oil industry officials, traders and analysts, as well as by reviewing proprietary shipping, satellite and inventory data.