Chinese PVC export prices fall to record lows amid US tariffs, Indian curbs

Chinese PVC export prices have dropped to record lows, weighed down by a sluggish real estate market, mounting oversupply and rising trade barriers, such as US tariffs and anticipated Indian import controls, which have forced traders to cut offers to stimulate demand from cautious buyers.

The Platts-assessed FOB China ethylene-based PVC price was unchanged day over day but down $10/mt week over week to $620/mt on April 24. FOB China carbide-based PVC was stable day over day but $5/mt lower week over week at $600/mt. Both prices fell to an all-time low, halving from their peak levels in early 2022.

On March 30, 2022, the Platts-assessed FOB China ethylene-based PVC price was at $1,380/mt, while FOB China carbide-based PVC was at $1,315/mt.

Chinese PVC demand in Southeast Asia has weakened due to the imposition of US tariffs, particularly in Vietnam, where a portion of products such as vinyl flooring and rigid pipes are reexported to the US. About 31% of China's vinyl flooring and 10% of rigid pipe output are directly exported to the US, according to market estimates, amplifying the impact of domestic market weakness.

Amid reduced orders and rising inventories, domestic prices in China have also plummeted to record lows, nearly a third of their peak levels in October 2021. Since April 9, prices have been hovering in the Yuan 4,790-4,810/mt range for Chinese domestic carbide-based PVC ex-tank, and around Yuan 5,050/mt for Chinese domestic ethylene-based PVC ex-tank.

Chinese PVC exports rose 11.1% month over month to a record high of 366,337 mt in March, driven largely by shipments to India, according to China Customs Statistics on April 21. Exports to India rose 13.3% month over month to 163,095 mt, marking an all-time high.

Market seeks India PVC clarity

Chinese-origin PVC volumes accounted for 40% of India's 3.22 million mt of imports in 2024, according to Indian Customs data. However, a shift in India's trade policy to protect its domestic industry is clouding China's export outlook, leading to increased caution among buyers.

Recent demand from India has been lackluster as buyer inquiries have declined due to market volatility and impending regulatory changes, according to a trader.

"In the first quarter of 2025, India imported a lot of Chinese cargo. They could have already built inventories ahead of potential antidumping duties," a trader said.

In October 2024, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies proposed provisional antidumping duties of $82-$167/mt on Chinese-origin PVC suspension resin, currently priced at about $40/mt lower than material from other origins.

This was followed by a December decision from the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers to postpone the implementation of the Bureau of Indian Standards quality control order on PVC homo-polymer imports until June 24, 2025.

In response, Chinese exporters remain cautiously optimistic about sustained demand from India, relying on flexible pricing to retain trade flows. While compliance with BIS certification poses significant challenges, trade sources have expressed concerns aboutpotential bottlenecks in the BIS audit process, which could further delay its implementation.

As of now, several key suppliers outside mainland China, including some major PVC producers in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, the US and Southeast Asia, have already obtained the certification.

Market participants are worried about possible oversupply, as up to 3 million mt/year of new PVC capacity is set to become operational in China by the end of 2025. This includes the 500,000 mt/year Xinpu Chemical plant in Taixing, Jiangsu, which began operations earlier this year.

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts, if all planned expansions are realized, China's total PVC capacity is expected to increase to 31.5 million mt/year from the current 28.7 million mt/year. However, market participants said that low operating margins could delay some commissioning timelines, potentially alleviating short-term supply pressure.