China's corn production expected to exceed demand in ten years: CNGOIC Director

The Chinese government is taking active steps to bridge the gap between the country's production and consumption of corn, eliminating reliance on imports, Li Shengjun, director of the monitoring and prediction department at China's national grain and oils information center, said at the International Grains Conference June 12.

"Looking forward to the next ten years, China's maize production and consumption will maintain a rapid growth, with gross rate of production exceeding the gross rate of consumption, and the gap will gradually decrease," Shengjun added.

The US Department of Agriculture projects China's corn production for MY 2024-25 at 292 million mt, up 1.1% on the year, while domestic demand is expected to be 313 million mt, up around 2% on the year, according to the world agricultural supply and demand estimates report released on June 12.

For the coming marketing year, the USDA projections point at a further widening of China's supply and demand gap, with consumption increasing faster than production.

Speaking to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Shengjun said that "there's no plan just yet, however, under the influence of markets, the supply and demand will reach a balance."

The production of wheat and rice, the two major staple grains, exceeds demand, but there has been a gap between maize production and demand in recent years. The Chinese government attaches great importance to food security, including maize, Shengjun added.

China is the world's largest importer of corn, with MY 2024-25 imports projected at 23 million mt, unchanged on the year.

As the largest demand center for corn in the world, any changes in China's domestic supply-demand equation will have a major impact on the global balance.

Between May 2023 and May 2024, China's imported a total of 23.7 million mt of corn, out of which 16.8 million mt or roughly 71% were supplied by Brazil alone, data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea showed.

For the same period, Brazilian corn exports amounted to a total volume of 53.1 million mt, with outflows to China making up 31.6%, according to CAS.

"All the countries, all the markets, where there's a gap or deficit, it's only temporary," Shengjun told Commodity Insights, adding that "prices will influence everything."