IATA AEF: SAF key to net-zero commitments, but hurdles in sight

Sustainable aviation fuel will be key to the aviation industry's commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050, panelists at International Air Transport Association's Aviation Fuel Forum said May 17, but roadblocks are on the horizon.

"We believe up to 60% of all our jet fuel use could be SAF, reducing 30% of our emissions, by 2050," said Jonathon Counsell, group head of sustainability at the International Airlines Group during the conference in Munich.

Those lofty goals, however, face challenges from scaling up production pathways other than the currently operational hydrotreating method, such as alcohol-to-jet and power-to-liquid.

Alistair Blanchard, senior manager for sustainable aviation at advisory firm ICF, said global SAF deployment will take place in distinct waves.

"We need slightly different drivers to make each wave happen," said Blanchard. "The first wave is all about economics...further waves have different sets of requirements and very expensive facilities."

Several refiners have converted or announced plans to convert idled hydrotreaters at conventional refineries toward renewable production, especially given new SAF mandates in Europe and supporting credit prices in the US. But future plants to reach SAF production at a sufficient scale to meet future mandated demand would require longer-term drivers, according to Blanchard, adding that the future generations of plants will need stability from policy and long-term purchasing agreements.

SAF producers and buyers have also faced challenges from different policies, mandates, and lifecycle emission models around the globe.

"The main challenge is harmonization," said Thomas Bock, sustainability certification expert at International Sustainability and Carbon Certification.

"If you're a fuel producer, you want to produce certified SAF, let's say SAF that is CORSIA eligible and also eligible under the EU [emissions trading system]...you'd need to have two different certifications, even though we're broadly speaking about the same sustainability topics."

Renewable fuel producers across the globe have expressed "model fatigue" as different carbon reduction programs use different analysis models and different certification processes, causing confusion and additional administrative work. Bock said producers will have to manage their accounting processes carefully to maintain those certifications, adding "accounting is not a sexy topic but extremely important."