US corn production in MY 2023-24 likely to rise 11% on higher yield, acreage: USDA

The US corn output for the marketing year 2022-23 (September-August) is projected at 15.265 billion bushels (387.75 million mt), up 11% on the year amid higher yield and acreage expectations, the US Department of Agriculture said May 12 in its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report.

A year-on-year rise in corn production by the world's second largest producer is expected to increase global supplies of the coarse grain, leading to bearish prospects for the prices.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed CIF New Orleans corn for June deliveries at $269.80/mt May 11, down $7/mt on the week.

According to the WASDE data, the US corn planted acreage is forecast at 92 million acres, up 4% on the year, while yield is expected at 181.5 bushels/acre, 4.6% higher on the year.

The yield projection for MY 2023-24 is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2022 time period, the USDA said.

The USDA expects higher exports and ending stocks in MY 2023-24.

While the exports are expected at 2.1 billion bushels, 18.3% higher on the year, the ending stocks are seen at 2.222 billion bushels, up 57% on the year, the WASDE data showed.

US corn exports for MY 2023-24 are forecast to rise as lower prices support a sharp increase in global trade following the decline seen during MY 2022-23, the USDA said. US market share is expected to increase slightly albeit remain below the average of the past five years, it said.

With total US corn supply rising more than demand, MY 2023-24 ending stocks are from last year and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since MY 2016-17, the USDA said. Stocks would represent 15.3% of use, the highest ratio since MY 2018-19, it said.

Global corn outlook MY 2023-24

The global coarse grain outlook for MY 2023-24 is for record production and use, and larger ending stocks, the USDA said.

World corn production is forecast to be record high, with the largest increases for the US, Argentina, the EU, China, and Serbia, it said. Partly offsetting are smaller crops projected for Ukraine and Brazil. World corn demand is expected to rise about 4% on the year with foreign consumption increasing by a similar amount, the report said.

With lower prices, world corn imports are forecast to grow just over 5% on the year, driven by increases for several countries, including China, Egypt, Vietnam, Algeria, Mexico, and Colombia, the USDA said. Partly offsetting are reductions for the EU and Turkey.

Global corn exports are seen higher for Argentina and Brazil, with the former reflecting a return to normal weather conditions after a drought during MY 2022-23, the USDA said. Despite a rebound in the US exports, Brazil is forecast to be the world's largest exporter of corn for the second consecutive year.

Exports for Ukraine are projected to decline based on lower production prospects, it said.

Global corn ending stocks are seen up 15.5 million mt on the year to 312.9 million mt, mostly reflecting larger stocks for the US that are partly offset by declines for Brazil and China, the USDA said.

For China, total coarse grain imports for MY 2023-24 are forecast at 38.4 million mt, up 7.2 million mt from a year ago but below the record 50.5 million mt reached during MY 2020-21, it said.