US shrimp import future unclear amid Trump tariff changes

US President Donald Trump's 90-day pause of just-enacted reciprocal tariffs led to a shift in shrimp markets and uncertainty, according to market sources and analysts.

Trump paused the tariffs on April 9 just a week after issuing them April 2. A 10% blanket tariff on all countries will remain in place, along with a 145% tariff on China. The quick change in tariffs came as a shock to many exporters.

India, the largest supplier of shrimp to the US, saw relief, as many analysts believed the sector could lose viability with the previous tariffs of 26%. In February, India supplied 40% of US shrimp imports, according to figures from the US Census Bureau. According to sources, few offers from India have been seen, as exporters were still rethinking their strategies.

India's shrimp exports are conducted on a delivery duty-paid basis, where the exporter is responsible for bearing the costs associated with tariffs. Therefore, previously contracted shipments that have not yet been delivered would incur additional costs for them.

The 90-day pause provides India-based exporters with the opportunity to deliver these orders without the extra cost.

"It gives relief to existing contracts," an importer told Platts. "But it only gives the packers 45 days to ship the containers they are holding, calculating 45 days of transit," adding that new orders are frozen until there is more clarity.

However, considering existing countervailing and antidumping duties, India now faces an 18.26% import duty on shrimp, a rate that still presents challenges, according to Max Bouratoglou, seafood and aquaculture analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"Despite the decrease in the tariff rate, processors are expected to remain hesitant about sourcing raw products,"he said. "Additionally, with the spring harvest boosting supplies, it appears unlikely that we will see any significant changes in Indian farmgate prices in the short term."

India is a main supplier of value-added shrimp to the US, responsible for 60% of US peeled and deveined shrimp imports in 2024, according to Bouratoglou. The country's focus on processed shrimp makes it difficult for other suppliers to replace their role in the US market.

Ecuador, the second-largest supplier of shrimp to the US, has a more limited capacity to produce value-added. Even so, the tariff change reduced the country's advantage against India.

"I have never seen a similar situation before," an Ecuador-based shrimp exporter said. "Such measures cause reactions and consequences in markets."

In Ecuador, sellers were quick to increase prices to US buyers by 10%, reflecting the tariff change. Most importers accepted the change, fearing that prices could rise even further, according to sources.

Trump's unpredictability should continue to weigh on the market, whether or not the tariffs are maintained, and the situation could lead to inaction among buyers and sellers, according to analysts.

Platts is part of Commodity Insights.