USDA cuts Brazil 2021-22 soybean output estimates, Argentina steady

The US Department of Agriculture further lowered its Brazilian soybean output projections from previous estimates, while Argentina forecast was held steady, it said April 8.

In its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report, the USDA set its production estimate at 125 million mt for the Brazil soybeans in crop year 2021-22 (September-August), down 2 million mt from March estimates, which was also in sync with the average analysts' expectations.

Meanwhile, the Argentinian soybean production forecast was left unchanged on previous estimates at 43.5 million mt, which surprised analysts who had pegged the volume at 42.8 million mt.

Global soybean production is reduced 3.1 million mt to 350.7 million mt on lower crops for Brazil and Paraguay, the USDA said.

S&P Global Commodity Insights sees soybean output in 2021-22 at 127 million mt for Brazil and 43.5 million mt for Argentina.

China's soybean demand in 2021-22 has also been reduced by another 3 million mt on March estimates to 91 million mt, the USDA's report said.

Lower supplies and higher prices reduced global meal demand, particularly for China where soybean crush was also lowered by 3 million mt to 89 million mt, the USDA said.

US soybeans

For the US soybeans, 2021-22 production is set at 4.435 billion bushels (120.8 million mt), steady on March estimates and 219 million bushels lower on the year.

Soybean harvested area for the US is estimated at 86.3 million acres, steady on the previous report.

The US soybean yield forecast for the 2021-22 marketing year (September-August) has been estimated at 51.4 bu/acre, unchanged on previous estimate in March.

The USDA sees the US soybean crush for the 2021-22 marketing year at 2.215 billion bushels (60.3 million mt), steady on previous estimates.

Soybean exports estimates, on the other hand, have been raised to 2.115 billion bushels (57.56 million mt) from the previous estimate of 2.090 billion bushels (56.88 million mt), the report said.

Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels, partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia, the USDA report said.

As a result, 2021-22 ending stocks are projected at 260 million bushels (7 million mt), down 25 million bushels on previous estimate, the USDA said.

Soybean exports are raised on lower production and reduced exports for South America, the report said.

US soybean complex

US soybean meal production estimates for the 2021-22 marketing year are forecast at 51.86 million st, compared with 51.90 million st in March report, while the ending stocks estimate remained steady at 400,000 st, the USDA said.

The soybean meal price was forecast at $420/st, steady on previous estimates in March, according to the WASDE report.

US soybean oil production was estimated at 26.2 billion lb, unchanged on last month's estimate, while the soybean oil price forecast was up 2 cents on March estimates at 70 cents/lb.