USDA raises 2022-23 global wheat output sharply, but ending stocks cut

Global wheat output is expected at 788.94 million mt in 2022-23, 5 million mt higher than the previous estimates, but ending stocks are seen falling more than 2.1 million mt to 267.2 million mt, the US Department of Agriculture said March 8.

Wheat output is seen rising in Australia, India, Brazil, and Kazakhstan, the agency's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report showed.

The USDA increased its forecast for Australia's wheat production to 39 million mt, up 1 million mt from earlier. It has also increased its estimates for Kazakhstan.

The agency has increased its forecast for Brazil by 500,000 mt to 10.4 million mt and for India to 104 million mt, up from 103 million mt seen earlier.

The USDA did not change production estimates for Russia, Ukraine, Canada, the US, and the EU.

But it has slightly increased output forecast for Argentina to 12.9 million mt, against 12.5 million mt seen earlier, despite continuing weather troubles.

For exports, the USDA has increased overall estimates by 1 million mt from the previous estimate to 213.93 million mt.

Australia's exports are seen up 28.5 million mt, up 500,000 mt from February, the report added. For Brazil, the agency has pegged wheat exports at 4.4 million mt, up from the 3.9 million mt seen earlier.

The USDA has cut Argentina's 2022-23 wheat export to 6.5 million mt from 7.5 million mt, seen earlier. It has also reduced its estimate for India's wheat exports to 5.5 million mt, down 400,000 mt from a month ago.

Kazakhstan likely to see a robust wheat crop

The USDA raised Kazakhstan's 2022-23 wheat output to 16.4 million mt, up from 14 million mt. Its wheat exports are seen at 10.5 million mt, up 1.5 million mt from a month ago, the agency said.

Wheat exports from Kazakhstan are expected to rise on higher demand from Central Asian nations, like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, the agency said in the Grain World Markets and Trade report released the same day.