Global shrimp output set to increase 2% in 2025: Rabobank

Global shrimp aquaculture production is expected to increase by 2% in 2025, amid moderate growth rates in Asia and Latin America, Rabobank said in a report.

According to the latest global aquaculture survey from RaboResearch and the Global Seafood Alliance, shrimp output is set to reach around 6.1 million mt in 2025, after an increase estimated at 1% in 2024 and 4% in 2023.

The analysts highlight that the oversupply situation seen in the last few years is expected to ease in Latin America in 2025, while in Asia producers are cautiously optimistic, resulting in modest growth rates in both regions.

Prices of shrimp showed a recovery in late 2024, coming from levels that were considered historically low by market participants. The Platts Ecuador Shrimp Marker -- which reflects head-on, shell-on with 30-40 count/kg -- reached $5,350/mt FCA Guayaquil on Jan. 13, compared with $4,800/mt FCA on Sept. 2, when the assessment was launched. Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Production in Asia is expected to grow by 2% in 2025, according to the bank estimates.

"This growth, an improvement over the past two years, hinges on better prices and reduced costs after a period of low profitability," Rabobank analysts said in the report.

Shrimp output in China is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2025, to 1.2 million mt, mostly due to efficiency gains from investments made in industrialized farming. In India, production is forecast to increase by 2%, to 1 million mt, after decreasing by 3% in 2024, according to estimates. The recovery is partly supported by government initiatives to boost domestic consumption.

Meanwhile, production in Ecuador should increase by 3-4% in 2025, after a growth of 2% estimated for 2024, reaching 1.3 million mt. The figures are a deceleration from prior years, as Ecuadorian shrimp production rose by an average of 14% from 2010 to 2023, with the rate slowing down to 4% in 2024.

An ongoing consolidation of the industry among large producers and technological advancements will continue to enhance the sector's productivity, the analysts said.

Production of monodon species will be a highlight this year, as interest in the so-called Black Tiger shrimp has been increasing due to genetic improvements and rising output costs in other farmed species. Global monodon production is forecast to grow by 7% in 2025, to 672,000 mt, mostly driven by Vietnam and India, according to Rabobank.