Japan sees surge in Oct chicken imports; Philippines expands market share amid domestic struggles

Japan's chicken imports surged in October 2024, driven by winter holiday demand, while high inventory levels raise concerns over price stability. Meanwhile, the Philippines faces increasing import needs amid domestic supply challenges.

Import dynamics and market demand

Japan's chicken imports surged from January to October 2024, reaching 537,295 mt — a 9% year-on-year increase, according to data from the Japanese Agriculture and Livestock Industries Corporation (ALIC). In October alone, imports totaled 62,323 mt, reflecting a significant month-on-month rise of 30.4%. This surge in imports was primarily to meet increased consumption during the winter holiday season, according to a Japanese market source.

However, this increase has coincided with high inventory levels, creating bearish market sentiment and raising concerns about price stabilization, as imports account for 81% of the country's total chicken supply.

According to data from ALIC, Japan's October's ending stocks stood at 173,314 mt, an 8% increase from the previous year. The average monthly chicken meat imports up to October 2024 were 53,731 mt, an 8.6% year-on-year rise. Japanese sources indicate that the current high inventory levels are exerting downward pressure on prices, prompting initiatives to reduce stock levels by March 2025.

Increase in Philippine chicken imports amid domestic supply challenges

In the Philippines, domestic producers are struggling to meet rising chicken demand, leading to a significant increase in imports. From January to September 2024, the Philippines imported 345,860 mt of chicken meat, a 6% year-on-year increase, according to the Bureau of Animal Industry. Brazil emerged as the largest supplier, accounting for 51% of total imports, followed by the United States at 31%. The Philippines has become a key market for chicken that would have otherwise been exported to China, where imports have declined due to increased domestic production.

Increasing bird flu outbreaks in North Asia

Meanwhile, North Asia is grappling with rising bird flu outbreaks. Japan has confirmed 20 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks as of Jan. 6, involving over 1.4 million birds, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Although the immediate impact appears limited, rising domestic chicken prices due to these outbreaks may lead consumers to opt for cheaper imported chicken.

South Korea is tightening compensation policies for farms affected by HPAI, reducing payments for biosecurity violations. As of Jan. 4, local news outlets reported 20 outbreaks across nine regions, impacting approximately 990,000 poultry.