EU alternative aviation fuel mandates highlight synthetic fuel supply concerns

Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring together the biggest stories in the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices.

Sustainable aviation fuel has had to make its way into airplanes refueling at EU airports for the first time in 2025, and while the initial mandates for biogenic SAF are within grasp, the supply is expected to struggle to meet higher targets further down the line, not least for synthetic fuel.

SAF made via the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids pathway (HEFA), which refines vegetable oils, waste oils or fats, is well-established and forging ahead from low production levels. Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipate 2025 consumption of SAF in the EU will be 20,670 b/d, in line with the EU target of 2% SAF for the year.

"As far as SAF supply for the ReFuelEU and UK SAF mandates go, there is enough SAF available globally for meeting the entire ReFuelEU annual targets from 2025 through 2029, as well as enough bio-SAF for ReFuelEU's 6% 2030 SAF mandate," a spokesperson for European biofuel producer Neste told Platts, part of Commodity Insights.

Neste's SAF production capability is projected to be 1.5 million mt in 2025, which would be enough to fulfill the 2% SAF mandates in the EU and UK, estimated at around 1.1 million mt of SAF/year, and there are other SAF producers currently in the market, Neste said.

Price of the week: $1,736.50/mt

Platts CIF Northwest Europe SAF on April 8, 165% costlier than jet fuel CIF NWE cargoes, with the premium for eSAF even greater.

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Battery storage suppliers caught in the middle of US-China trade dispute

US imports of various types of batteries and related parts for energy storage systems, electric vehicles, consumer electronics and other uses have soared this decade, especially lithium-ion batteries made in China. Since 2021, the US has imported over $100 billion in electric storage batteries and components, reaching record heights in 2024, according to the S&P Global Market Intelligence Global Trade Analytics Suite.

INTERVIEW: AM Green set for 2027 renewable ammonia launch with binding Uniper deal -- CEO

AM Green is on track to commence renewable ammonia production at its flagship 1 million mt/year Kakinada project in India in early 2027, CEO Gautam Kumbam said, in what has the potential to mark the country’s entry into large-scale new fuel exports. The developer has secured a binding offtake agreement with Uniper and is advancing plans for a total of 3 million mt/year of renewable ammonia capacity across three locations in India in phases.

Platts Connect

RGGI carbon prices drop 21% after executive order targets state climate laws

US Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative carbon allowance prices were hit hard by an April 8 executive order targeting state climate laws, falling 21% over the next two days, according to Platts data. On April 8, US President Donald Trump directed Attorney General Pam Bondi to "expeditiously" halt the enforcement of various state climate laws, specifically naming California’s cap-and-trade program. While prices fell in both the California market and RGGI, the Northeast market was hit harder.

UK shortlists 765 MW of green hydrogen projects for second allocation round

The UK government has shortlisted 27 projects under its second electrolytic hydrogen allocation round, representing around 765 MW of capacity, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero told Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. The shortlisted capacity falls short of the 875 MW available under HAR2, and the government said it did not expect to award funding to all the projects.

INTERVIEW: Japan weighs support frameworks for large-scale CCS introduction

Japan intends to introduce a set of support frameworks for the country's carbon capture and storage projects before companies make final investment decisions from around the end of fiscal year 2026-27 (April-March), a top official in charge of CCS policy told Platts. "We are targeting the start of [CCS] frameworks before [companies] make FIDs from the end of FY 2026-27 to FY 2027-28," Yoshinori Keino, director of the CCS Policy Office at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, said.

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