Post-Trudeau Canadian government could roll back carbon, climate policies

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Canada’s 2025 federal election poses a threat to the Liberal Party’s currently unpopular platform, including carbon and climate policies(opens in a new tab) that contributed to higher power prices, an S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst said Jan. 8.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced plans to resign on Jan. 6. Following his stepping down, someone from the Liberal Party could replace him in the interim or an early election could be called ahead of the 2025 federal election on Oct. 20.

“Canadians are not very happy with Justin Trudeau,” Hilary Bao, senior analyst at Commodity Insights, said.

There is a chance that the Conservative Party could win in 2025, but “anything can happen” and the margins are not yet clear, Bao said.

In the case that the conservatives win the federal election, the country’s energy transition “big picture” wouldn’t change in the power sector, Bao said.

“The whole country is still going to move away from carbon-intensive technologies to cleaner technologies in the energy sector,” she said.

However, the party has previously expressed interest in relieving the federal carbon tax imposed under Trudeau. A September 2023 policy outline document also showed preference for provinces and territories to each develop their own climate change policies without federal penalties or incentives. Whether or not that document reflects the party’s action plan if elected in 2025 is uncertain.

“[Conservatives] might reverse some of Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax, but everything is up in the air,” Bao said.

At that time, the market did not have sufficient reliable capacity to replace the coal that was being phased out, Hilary Bao, senior analyst at Commodity Insights, said.

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