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    07 May 2018

    New Iraqi government likely to seek US military withdrawal regardless of election outcome, Shia infighting increasingly likely

    01 May 2018

    Pashinyan's likely election to mitigate Armenian protests but bring legislative gridlock until early election in two-month outlook

    25 April 2018

    New Ethiopian PM's approach towards demonstrators' demands, contraband networks will determine protest and violence one-year outlook

    06 April 2018

    Gaza protests reduce likelihood of interstate conflict, but unlikely to improve Hamas’s domestic popularity without external support

    16 March 2018

    UAE-backed counter-terrorism operations unlikely to fully succeed in rooting out Sunni jihadists from southern Yemen

    14 March 2018

    Ethiopian security crackdown in Oromia region will likely spread violent protests, targeting road cargo and commercial property

    07 March 2018

    Attacks in northern Mozambique indicate expanding target set to include publicly accessible economic locations, but not capability

    06 March 2018

    Islamist attack in Burkina Faso's capital indicates increasing vulnerability of hardened security force targets

    02 March 2018

    Organised crime groups in South Korea increasingly operating hybrid licit-illicit businesses, hampering law enforcement efforts

    01 March 2018

    Military police deployments to Mexico's Guanajuato state unlikely to significantly reduce hydrocarbons theft or homicides in 2018

    27 February 2018

    Military deployment in Brazil's Rio likely to contain shootings around slums and cargo theft on main highways

    21 February 2018

    Ethiopia's ruling coalition likely to remain stable after appointing consensus replacement for outgoing PM by end-March

    19 February 2018

    Donbass-Abkhazia coal export scheme, if implemented, to provide separatist entities in Ukraine and Georgia with additional revenues

    19 February 2018

    Cross-strait military build-up heightens war-risk and increases likelihood of discrimination against Taiwan and US companies in China

    13 February 2018

    Drug-related violence on a downward trend in Mexico's Coahuila state but 'narco-messages' highlight organised crime presence

    12 February 2018

    Likely Syrian miscalculation of Israeli commitment to "red lines" over Iranian expansionism raises war risks

    12 February 2018

    Declining Naxalite militant attacks indicate lowering risk in India but promotion of military commander likely to prolong conflict

    05 February 2018

    Ability of foreign fighters to enter Europe undetected indicates heightened risk of multi-site mass-casualty attacks in 2018

    02 February 2018

    Oman's expatriate hiring freezes likely to be renewed and expanded as government pushes for higher local content

    01 February 2018

    Opposition to re-form under new leadership as Kenya's finalised cabinet reviews electricity off-take and onshore petroleum revenues

    31 January 2018

    Ineffective Nigerian government response to surging farmer-herder killings risks violent protests spreading to Middle Belt cities

    31 January 2018

    Rapid diversification of Mexico's export markets unlikely in one-year outlook even if US leaves NAFTA

    30 January 2018

    Uncertainty over final outcome of Lava Jato likely to delay leniency agreements with Brazil's top construction firms

    26 January 2018

    Iranian government’s recognition of economic grievances positive, but meaningful remedial action would increase risk to state stability

    25 January 2018

    Corruption conviction of left-wing former Brazilian president upheld, likely to end his presidential race

    24 January 2018

    Venezuelan government's call for presidential elections to secure its grip on power unlikely to reduce government instability

    22 January 2018

    Turkish intervention in Syria likely to force US to choose between NATO ally, Turkey, and the YPG

    19 January 2018

    Turkey-Greece-Cyprus dispute over Mediterranean hydrocarbons risks disruption to shipping routes and localised naval incidents in 2018

    18 January 2018

    Progress on state capture investigations increases probability South African president will resign before parliament reconvenes

    17 January 2018

    US president’s statement on Iran sanctions waivers increases risk of snapback, undermining JCPOA’s longevity

    15 January 2018

    Declining militant attacks indicate lowering risk in Pakistan but rallies and religious minorities remain likely targets

    11 January 2018

    Tribal conflict in south Iraq likely to increase, exacerbated by returning PMU fighters and oil sector growth

    08 January 2018

    Bilateral talks are strongest indicator of whether North Korea will carry out provocations during Olympics

    05 January 2018

    Islamic State unlikely to successfully challenge Hamas; greater frequency of rocket attacks into Israel likely

    05 January 2018

    Cabinet member suspensions confirm Somali president's weakness against clan rivals, indicating greater likelihood of forced leadership change

    03 January 2018

    South Korean authorities likely to seize vessels suspected of ship-to-ship transfers to North Korea

    03 January 2018

    Iranian government risks alienating support base in suppressing disparate protests across country

    20 December 2017

    South African president highly likely to be removed early but resistance to resigning will delay economic recovery

    18 December 2017

    Despite its anti-Israel rhetoric, Hamas’ weakness limits military options and means it cannot abandon reconciliation with Fatah

    15 December 2017

    Gang war in Brazil's Rio de Janeiro contained by deployment of military, but respite likely to be short-lived

    15 December 2017

    Saudi Arabia's policy failures in Lebanon enhance most Lebanese parties’ incentives to co-operate with Hizbullah

    13 December 2017

    Embassy warning indicates increasing risk of Islamist attacks against Chinese personnel in Pakistan rather than CPEC projects

    13 December 2017

    Defection of serial presidential aspirant from ruling party highlights probability of Nigerian president successfully seeking second term

    12 December 2017

    Security services' increased anti-terrorism effort likely to mitigate risk of successful attacks on soft targets in Russia

    08 December 2017

    Growing risks to marine and aviation assets in Houthi-controlled territory as coalition-backed forces mobilise in central Yemen

    15 November 2017

    Zimbabwean army likely to negotiate transitional power transfer to ousted vice-president following palace coup

    08 November 2017

    Lebanese PM's resignation probably driven by Saudi Arabia, reflecting intent to intensify pressure on Hizbullah

    06 November 2017

    Houthi missile fired at Riyadh indicates intent to engage targets deep in Saudi Arabia, despite escalation risk

    02 November 2017

    Foiled Islamic State mall attack in Turkey reflects expansion of jihadist target set while capabilities remain moderate

    01 November 2017

    Opposition "resistance movement" unlikely to mobilise effective legislative boycott or successfully challenge Kenyan president's re-election in court

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